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PLINKO

0% 15% 30%
Balance: 1000
Total Wagered: 0
Total Won: 0
Profit: 0

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Understanding Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run.

When the house edge is 15%, your EV is 85%. This means:

  • For every $100 wagered, you'll get back $85 on average
  • You lose $15 per $100 bet in the long run
  • The house always wins over time

Retail Trading = Gambling

Just like this Plinko game, retail trading has a negative expected value:

  • Spreads & Fees: Every trade costs you money (house edge)
  • Slippage: You rarely get your exact entry/exit price
  • Emotional Decisions: Fear and greed amplify losses
  • Information Asymmetry: Institutions have better data, faster execution, and lower fees

The only consistent winners in retail trading are the brokers and exchanges collecting fees.

This Plinko game is more honest than most trading platforms—it shows you the exact house edge upfront.

1/5

Technical Analysis is Astrology for Men

Technical Analysis has ZERO statistical edge.

TA is pattern recognition in random noise. It feels scientific, but it's not:

  • Support/Resistance: DeltaZerory lines drawn after the fact. Move them and you'll always "predict" the past perfectly.
  • Chart Patterns: Head & shoulders, double tops, triangles—all fail ~50% of the time. Coin flip odds.
  • Indicators: RSI, MACD, Moving Averages are lagging. By the time they signal, the move is over.
  • No Statistical Validation: Show me a reproducible, peer-reviewed study proving TA works. You can't.
  • Survivorship Bias: You only see the winning TA predictions on Twitter. The 99 losing trades? Deleted.

If TA worked, every TA trader would be rich. Instead, 95% blow their accounts within a year.

Reading charts is the financial equivalent of reading tea leaves.

2/5

KOLs & Influencers: The Real Scam

They don't make money from trading. They make money from YOU.

The Conflict of Interest:

If they were profitable traders, why would they:

  • Spend 8 hours/day making YouTube videos instead of trading?
  • Sell $997 courses instead of compounding their edge?
  • Need affiliate revenue if their strategy works?
  • Promote shitcoins on Twitter for $5k per tweet?

Their Real Business Model:

  • Affiliate Links: $50-200 per signup to exchanges. They're paid whether you win or lose.
  • Course Sales: Teach TA, sell hope. 0% refund rate because "you didn't follow the rules."
  • Signal Groups: $50-500/month for random entries with 50% win rate (coin flip).
  • Paid Promotions: Dump their bags on their followers. You're exit liquidity.

If someone is profitable trading, they wouldn't waste time selling you signals. They'd be too busy compounding.

3/5

Discretionary Trading = Random Entries

Without quantitative validation, you're just gambling with extra steps.

No Edge = No Profit

Discretionary trading means:

  • No backtested strategy with proven statistical edge
  • No systematic entry/exit rules
  • No risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio, Sortino, etc.)
  • Decisions based on "feeling" and chart reading

The Problems:

  • No Hedge: Pure directional exposure. When market moves against you, you're fucked.
  • Emotional Decisions: Fear during drawdowns, greed during rallies. Psychology guarantees losses.
  • No Risk Management: Random position sizing. One bad trade wipes the account.
  • Confirmation Bias: You see what you want to see in the charts. Reality disagrees.

If you can't explain your edge mathematically, you don't have one.

Saying "I'm a discretionary trader" is just a fancy way of saying "I make random bets based on vibes."

4/5

What is REAL Quantitative Trading?

Quant trading isn't just backtesting on TradingView. It's systematic, statistical, and institutional-grade.

Not Quant Trading:

  • Manual backtesting on TradingView charts
  • PineScript indicators without rigorous validation
  • Overfitted strategies that work perfectly in backtest, fail live
  • Strategies without transaction costs, slippage, or market impact modeling

Real Quant Trading:

  • Statistical Edge: Proven alpha with positive Sharpe ratio across multiple market regimes
  • Automated Execution: Zero human emotion. Algorithms execute 24/7
  • Risk Management: Portfolio-level hedging, delta-neutral strategies, volatility targeting
  • Infrastructure: Low-latency execution, co-location, direct market access
  • Rigorous Validation: Out-of-sample testing, walk-forward analysis, Monte Carlo simulations
  • Transaction Cost Analysis: Every trade accounts for fees, spread, slippage, market impact

Real quant trading is engineering, not gambling. It's Python/C++, not TradingView. It's mathematics, not astrology.

If you're not running systematic strategies with provable edge, proper infrastructure, and institutional-grade risk management—you're not trading, you're donating to market makers.

5/5